Friday, October 7, 2011

Do you think I can go for the Nobel Prize for Economics?

So here's what I figure.....DO THE MATH.....(would if I could).



1) We can replace most manual labor with big machines (farming), and robots (manufacturing). and computers.

2) We can replace much clerical labor with computers.

3) We can replace much of middle management and management with better management information, controls, processes, telecommunications and computers.

4) That leaves most businesses targeting highly leveraged models, with as few employees as possible, as few high-paid middle management jobs as possible.

5) Communications and computers enable most word to be done close to where there are raw-materials and cheap labor.

6) Cheap labor includes low-price PhD's from the abundant global supply.  Also low-price service employees for phone-support, aided by remote computing.  Also low price analysis.

7) Now, DO THE MATH. (would if I could).

8) There are 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 billion people in the world - - and growing rapidly.  There will not be enough good paying jobs - - unless:

a) We build roads and buildings like we did in the 19th century.  Using a lot of people.
b) We manufacture things like we did in the 19th century. Using lots of people.

Note:  We built highways and railroads and sky-scrapers faster in 1880--1940 than we do now.

c) We farm using lots of people.

9) What is a service economy - where you don't need people to make things or run companies.  You only need young people to look after old people with a continuous transfer of wealth from the aging population to the younger generation and so on, and so on.

10) Do the math.  Would if I could.

No comments:

Post a Comment